Cardrona Alpine Resort snow report & closure odds

Q: Will Cardrona Alpine Resort be open on Monday 12 October 2026?

Our model puts the chance of Cardrona Alpine Resort being closed on Monday 12 October 2026 at 5%. That is our locked call for that day as at 11 October, 8:00 PM NZT.

Q: How often does Cardrona Alpine Resort close?

Cardrona Alpine Resort has closed on 5 of the 105 days we have a record for this season. Its longer history — 282 days — works out at about 1 day in 26. Counted as at 11 October, 8:21 PM NZT.

Q: Is Cardrona Alpine Resort open today?

Cardrona Alpine Resort is reporting Closed as at 11 October, 4:50 PM NZT — the last update we captured.

We predict if Cardrona Alpine Resort will be open on Monday 12 October 2026 from the weather forecast, combined with this mountain’s own closure record.

Otago · RealNZ

mountain Closedlifts 0/10 at last reportbase 105 cmreported 11 October · 4:50pm NZT

Cardrona Alpine Resort’s own words: “Sunday 11/10 We are Open today with another classic spring day! We currently have bluebird skies, a few scattered clouds about the ranges and light Northerly winds.”

Will Cardrona Alpine Resort be open on Monday 12 October 2026?

⚠ Closed at last report — Cardrona Alpine Resort hasn’t published a reason we’ve captured.

live · updated 11 October · 8:07pm BASED ON ITS HISTORY

Will Cardrona Alpine Resort be open on Monday 12 October 2026?

5% chance it doesn't run

The forecast was quiet when we locked this in, so we put the chance of closing at 5%. locked 11 October · 8:00pm NZT — the one we score ourselves on

0%50%100%

about typical here (typically 1-in-26)

The weather looks good — wind, snow, rain and avalanche danger all come in under this mountain's limits in the latest forecast.

Medium confidence

Cardrona Alpine Resort has closed on 1 of the last 14 days without our number calling it — this one can run low.

SundayOpen · up to 7 of 10 lifts ran

SaturdayOpen · 8 of 10 lifts

How often does Cardrona Alpine Resort close?

This is the part the official reports don't tell you. We keep every day of Cardrona Alpine Resort's season on record — open, closed, or no report — and every call we've made about it.

Days recorded this season	105
Days closed	5
Typical closure rate	3.9% (1 day in 26)
History behind that rate	282 days
Night-before calls made	63 (63 scored, 60 correct)

On the days we have a record for, Cardrona Alpine Resort was closed 5 times out of 105.

See Cardrona Alpine Resort’s season record ↓

Is Cardrona Alpine Resort open today?

Last report from Cardrona Alpine Resort: Closed (11 October, 4:50 PM NZT). We check Cardrona Alpine Resort's own report every 10 minutes through the morning and every 15 minutes through the day, so a mid-morning closure shows up here quickly.

Read Cardrona Alpine Resort’s official report → Always check the mountain’s own site before you drive.